000 AXNT20 KNHC 271050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG ALONG 29W/30W S OF 8N BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO ONLY MOVED 2 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WHICH MAKES THE VALIDITY QUESTIONABLE. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING THIS TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 21N57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 8N19W 6N20W 2N38W 1N51W AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 12N74W ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA NEAR 9N83W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N12W 3N20W TO 5N24W AND FROM THE EQUATOR THE THE SW COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. THIS COMBINED IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF FROM THE W ATLC WITH A EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE W FLORIDA COAST ALONG 84W FROM 24N-30N GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 64W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CLOSE TO THE CUBA TO THE NW COAST OF JAMAICA WHERE IS DISSIPATES TO THE W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AN AREA N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-80W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. THE WESTERN UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 61W INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 32N59W 27N65W 24N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS 24N-28N. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE VENZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N54W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N35W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 14N48W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC E OF 20W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SE/NW FROM 21N31W ALONG 25N36W TO 26N42W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION AND SW OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE