000 AXNT20 KNHC 261737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOW DIFFICULT TO TRACK. VERY LITTLE LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE REMAINS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-29W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 47W-50W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTION IS CONFINED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ..THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 4N40W 4N52W. OTHER THAN THE ATLANTIC CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 8W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SELY RETURN SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE ERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW W OF 90W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF HAITI NEAR 21N73W. A COLD COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N AND W OF 78W. EXPECT... THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N56W 23N67W 21N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N31W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N55W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS W OF 60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N37W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N45W. A RIDGE IS E OF 35W. $$ FORMOSA