000 AXNT20 KNHC 261106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/27W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE AT ALL. ..THE ITCZ... FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 7N25W TO 5N30W 4N46W...CURVING THROUGH 3N49W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S53W. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 7W AND 12W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W... WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N22W 3N28W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N26W 6N30W 7N39W 8N41W 9N43W 10N48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM BERMUDA TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N77W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N84W. COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR LATE MAY MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWESTWARD...WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N72W TO 23N80W ALONG THE CUBA COAST. MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 84W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA COLD FRONT THAT ACCOMPANIES THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH GOES FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N56W TO 29N60W TO 22N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA TO 20N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N57W 25N62W 22N68W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N68W 20N74W 20N83W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THE 17N93W 23N94W SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26/0000 UTC DID NOT APPEAR IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS OR THE SURFACE WIND FIELD ANALYSIS AT 26/0600 UTC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS FROM 13N IN NICARAGUA TO 18N IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OF THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST BY THE PREVAILING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IT LOOKED LIKE A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS DEVELOPING NEAR 20N91W AT 25/1500 UTC. MORE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDED THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR THE OLD TROPICAL WAVE/REMNANT CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE POSSIBLE 20N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FLATTENED OUT. THE REMNANT WIND FLOW HAS BECOME WESTERLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY...AND ONLY WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS NEAR 17N69W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH AMERICA...COVERING THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 68W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREAD NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 68W FROM 10N TO 20N. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS FROM A 30N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N44W TO 10N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO MOROCCO...ALGERIA...MAURITANIA...AND MALI. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 26N48W TO 21N55W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 33N56W 20N83W COLD FRONT. $$ MT