000 AXNT20 KNHC 251802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 39W-44W. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 64W-70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W FROM 11N -20N. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DISSIPATED. ..THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 2N30W 2N42W EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 2W-8W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 4W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 12W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER BRAZIL FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING SE TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 62W-75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREDOMINATES. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER E CUBA AND HAITI IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 26N70W 24N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N32W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N58W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS W OF 65W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N34W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE TROPICS NEAR 10N40W. A RIDGE IS E OF 25W. $$ FORMOSA