000 AXNT20 KNHC 251107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W FROM 13N TO 20N...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRETTY MUCH HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE TIME BEING. SOME OF THE HIGHER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BEING BLOWN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SHREADS OF SHOWERS HAVE BLOWN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO GUATEMALA ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION. ..THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 2N23W TO 2N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W. STRONG SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. THE FRENCH GUIANA PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN DISSIPATING STEADILY. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 31N35W TO 3N43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH AND IT COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N74W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 14N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 12N60W 15N70W 15N80W 17N88W IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ONE TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM GEORGIA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N60W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N71W...TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEYOND 31N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N65W TO 27N70W TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR 20N80W. THIS COVERS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH OF CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS FROM A 31N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N40W TO 14N43W 3N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 33W AND 39W...AND FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN AFRICA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SPAIN/PORTUGAL TO MOROCCO/ ALGERIA/MALI/MAURITANIA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 38N32W TO 31N41W TO 27N47W TO 23N55W. $$ MT