000 AXNT20 KNHC 250614 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE WAS COMPARATIVELY MORE IMPRESSIVE AND THERE WAS MORE OF IT 24 HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 13N TO 20N...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING/ WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE FOLLOWED. THE MOST RECENT PRECIPITATION IS SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS REMAIN ELSEWHERE FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM MEXICO TO GUATEMALA ALSO IS IN THE AREA OF THE PRECIPITATION. ..THE ITCZ... 6N9W 4N19W 2N29W 4N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 1W AND 3W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH AND IT COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N74W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN NORTHERN HAITI. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 14N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 12N60W 15N70W 16N80W 17N88W IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW...AND IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ONE TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM GEORGIA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N71W TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N... TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE ABOUT 10 HOURS AGO. FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS FROM A 31N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N41W TO 14N43W 4N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN AFRICA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM SPAIN/ PORTUGAL TO MOROCCO/ALGERIA/MALI/MAURITANIA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N34W TO 29N41W TO 23N60W. $$ MT