000
AXNT20 KNHC 221018
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. A MID LEVEL 
ROTATION IS NEAR 7N22W ALONG THE AXIS. ANY CONVECTION REMAINS 
WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD 
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED N OF SURINAME AND 
FRENCH GUIANA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS 
WELL-DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
INLAND OVER PANAMA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. 

..THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N6W 5N13W 7N20W 1N33W 1N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 39W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 
19W-45W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE IVORY COAST OF 
AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF LINE FROM 1S4W ACROSS THE EQUATOR TO 4N21W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING 
OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 91W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO THE N GULF COAST 
NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND 
INTO S ALABAMA/GEORGIA TO 32N WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING 
OVER THE NE US AND THE NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR STATIONARY INLAND ACROSS S GEORGIA TO N 
LOUISIANA. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N29N BETWEEN 87W-91W AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS 
COVERING A BROADER AREA N OF 24N TO THE N GULF COAST E OF 95W TO 
JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER 
THE S FLORIDA AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR CAYMAN 
ISLANDS NW ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 
SECOND MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NW TO 16N81W 
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W 
OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. WEAK UPPER LOW IS THE MONA PASSAGE WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF LINE FROM 18N82W TO THE ABC ISLANDS TO 
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. 
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA USHERING 
IN SOME ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE US AND NW ATLC WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING N OF THE REGION. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 31N W 
OF 55W PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE 
REGION N OF 31N FROM BERMUDA TO 77W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF OF A 
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E TROPICAL ATLC 
ALONG 15N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES 
THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 31N39W. 

$$
WALLACE