000 AXNT20 KNHC 201033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH NO ASSOCIATED ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ..THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 8N14W 3N30W 6N42W 4N54W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-19W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 3N E OF 54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 40W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-38W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 36W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF TO THE N GULF COAST WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC. A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SW TO W UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF FROM N OF VERACRUZ TO THE TEXAS BORDER W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 91W S OF 24N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF VERACRUZ. OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE GULF IS THE ABUNDANCE OF SMOKE THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF FIRES OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 16N70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS N OF 14N THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W AND COUPLED WITH EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SMOKE IS A CONCERN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITHIN 60 NM OF 19.5N79.5W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING N OF THE REGION. A JET STREAM WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 115 KT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR 31N59W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N68W AND EXTENDING THE AXIS NE TO BEYOND 32N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N76W TO BEYOND 32N64W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E ATLC N OF 12N BETWEEN 23W-47W WITH A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N41W TO 26N45W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27W AND A WEAKER 1021 MB HIGH W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 30N44W. $$ WALLACE