000 AXNT20 KNHC 190542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SHOW A FAINT APEX OR WEAK INVERTED V PATTERN IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LINEAR IN STRUCTURE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W S OF 14N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE MAY BE ADJUSTED W TO NEAR 65W ON THE 06Z MAP BASED ON A MOISTURE BULGE EVIDENT ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. THAT POSITION WOULD ALSO PLACE THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION ...HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WAVE. ..THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N30W 5N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N E OF 14W AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT LIES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TRANSPORTING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SE OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. THIS UPPER FLOW IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 21N93W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE JUST DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE E GULF. A WEAKENING PATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS LOCATED S OF KEY WEST TO THE N SHORE OF CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE...BOTH SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE STRONG UPPER WINDS. SFC WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE WEAK FRONT AND A 1013 MB HIGH OVER THE W GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LARGE SCALE MID TO UPPER RIDGING LIES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH IT IS INTERRUPTED SLIGHTLY BY A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR 15N66W. THE UPPER LOW AND MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 14N IS UNDER A VERY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT PROVIDING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. ONE MINOR EXCEPTION IS OVER HAITI...AS SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES DEPICT FAIRLY DENSE LOW-LEVEL DENSE CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS. S OF 14N...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW WATERS S OF 13N W OF 77W. ELY TRADES ARE MAINLY MODERATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS. THESE WINDS VEER SE OVER THE NW WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N26W DOMINATES THE THE SFC PATTERN THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE SUBTROPICS...EXCEPT FOR THE NW WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE NE CONUS. N TO NE WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 20N-26N DUE TO INVERTED TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENT. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE RIDGE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC POSITIONED NEAR 22N69W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG 33W/34W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 30W-34W. RIDGING LIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N14W AND ANOTHER OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. VISIBILITY IS LIKELY REDUCED IN THE SMOKE PLUMES DIRECTLY DOWNWIND FROM BRUSH FIRES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA...NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA AND ABACO BAHAMAS. $$ CANGIALOSI