000 AXNT20 KNHC 161741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS BROAD IN ITS CLOUD AND MOISTURE STRUCTURE...AS SEEN IN THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION. THE AXIS IS PLACED ALONG AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND OVERALL PEAK IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W AND 180 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 8N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR FRENCH GUIANA ALONG 51W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS DISORGANIZED WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE W EDGE OF ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD FIELD...DUE TO ELY SHEAR. VIS IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL TURNING CONCENTRATED NEAR 7N. SHOWER AND TSTMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS. AN ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 76W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A SMALL BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE THAT MAY BE ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N COLOMBIA. NO OTHER AVAILABLE DATA PROVIDES GUIDANCE ON THE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE...SO IT IS MAINLY BASED ON THE TPW ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N20W 5N30W 2N40W 5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS TRACKING SE ACROSS THE GULF ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N92W TO 18N94W. LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER NW MEXICO AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIB AND E GULF...IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF A LINE FROM N FLORIDA TO THE W PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N83W 19N96W. SAT IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL AN ENHANCEMENT OR DEEPENING ACTIVITY NEAR 27N93.5W. N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IS ADVECTING A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...BUT IT REMAINS MOIST DUE TO THE ACTIVITY PRODUCED BY THE DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC RIDGING IS HANGING ON WITH ITS ASSOCIATED S TO SW FLOW PROVIDING A WARM AND HUMID DAY OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS SE THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE ARE A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND LIKELY OVER S HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE APPROACHING THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING W WITHIN THE ITCZ AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOME BY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER BENEATH A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SPRAWLING MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST S OF CUBA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIB. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 11Z SHOWED 20 KT TRADES CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL PORTION ROUGHLY BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE ENHANCED REGION OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW REGIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE N ATLC MUCH OF THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOING THE SAME...ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N49W TO 22N57W THEN STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SE BEHIND THE FRONT...ANALYZED 1020 MB NEAR 28N69W. STRONG SW WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM. A 1025 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE SFC PATTERN E OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 32N37W. THE ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THE SUBTROPICS IS AN E-W TROUGH LINE ALONG 27N/28N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 27W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHALLOW SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN LIES OVER THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CONFLUENCE PROVIDING A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT FROM 12N-26N E OF 30W. $$ CANGIALOSI