000 AXNT20 KNHC 141732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A FAINT MOISTURE PEAK TRAVELING WEST N OF VENEZUELA...AND THIS FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH CONTINUITY. SYNOPTIC SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER N VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ABOUT 1-1.5 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE MORE LINKED TO THE FRONT NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 2N32W 1N47W 2N52W. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W OR SO...THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SFC MAP SOON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 35W-45W...WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF LIES BETWEEN A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM 15-20 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS FLOW. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW TRANSPORTING CIRRUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ACTIVE WEATHER LIES N OF THE ZONE OVER E TEXAS...SE KANSAS AND N LOUISIANA. THIS WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TOMORROW NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ABOUT MIDWAY OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER S BY LATE SAT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXTENDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THANKS TO A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIB. TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE S CARIB...20-25 KT...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS QSCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NWP MODELS ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 987 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS SW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 27N72W MARKING AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS. THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A SCATTERED AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHALLOW SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID TO UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS AND BROAD FLAT RIDGING OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING GENERATED BY THIS PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS BUT UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS PARKED NEAR 29N37W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS E OF 50W OR SO AND MAINLY 15-20 KT NE/E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTION. $$ CANGIALOSI 000 AXNT20 KNHC 141732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS VERY ILL-DEFINED AND MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A FAINT MOISTURE PEAK TRAVELING WEST N OF VENEZUELA...AND THIS FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH CONTINUITY. SYNOPTIC SFC OBSERVATIONS OVER N VENEZUELA AND THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ABOUT 1-1.5 MB LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAK WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE MORE LINKED TO THE FRONT NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 2N32W 1N47W 2N52W. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 16W OR SO...THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SFC MAP SOON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 35W-45W...WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-31W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF LIES BETWEEN A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OVER S TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING FAIRLY UNIFORM 15-20 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THIS FLOW. ALOFT...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLOW TRANSPORTING CIRRUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ACTIVE WEATHER LIES N OF THE ZONE OVER E TEXAS...SE KANSAS AND N LOUISIANA. THIS WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF TOMORROW NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ABOUT MIDWAY OR SLIGHTLY FURTHER S BY LATE SAT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EXTENDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. OTHERWISE...VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAILS THANKS TO A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE E CARIB. TRADE WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE S CARIB...20-25 KT...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS QSCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NWP MODELS ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...SO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE 987 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WELL N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION ZONE NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS SW JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 27N72W MARKING AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS. THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A SCATTERED AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHALLOW SHOWERS N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID TO UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS AND BROAD FLAT RIDGING OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING GENERATED BY THIS PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICS BUT UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...A 1025 MB HIGH IS PARKED NEAR 29N37W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS E OF 50W OR SO AND MAINLY 15-20 KT NE/E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL PORTION. $$ CANGIALOSI