000 AXNT20 KNHC 141059 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GUIANAS REGION...SE VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS E OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N15W 5N20W EQ35W 1N43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N37W TO 3N45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD... INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE MAINLY DRY AND STABLE. AS OF 0900 UTC...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ANALYZED FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF N OF 25N ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGE. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF AND W CUBA. ALOFT...A RIDGE CENTERED OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA ENVELOPS THE ENTIRE GULF. FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER FEATURE IS TRANSPORTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. ONLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE W GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF LATE THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE E ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE N COAST OF E CUBA WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS E CUBA AS FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-79W. THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH POSITIONED OVER BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 60W AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 40N61W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N67W WSW TO 25N74W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED BEHIND THIS TROUGH ARE PROVIDING NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. A BROAD ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 8N IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN