000 AXNT20 KNHC 121117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 50W-52W IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAVE. POSITION BASED ON SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA WHICH INDICATES THAT WAVE IS STILL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N17W 2N26W 2N36W 3N43W 2N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-16W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 6N28W 3N34W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 09Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 27N82W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N90W TURNING STATIONARY TO NEAR 25N95W. A NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VERY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN DEWPOINTS MARK THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS INLAND MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE GULF W OF 94W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE GULF AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE S GULF WATERS ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 11N-14N ALONG 79W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW THROUGH THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N COLOMBIA. THIS IS PROVIDING ONLY SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND S WINDWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE W ATLC. THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 72W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N47W SW TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N BETWEEN 57W-64W. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND WEAKEN NORTH OF THE AREA. FARTHER EAST...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 55W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM 31N26W 29N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. $$ HUFFMAN