000
AXNT20 KNHC 120542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY 
LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE. POSITION BASED ON 
SURFACE WINDS REMAINING NE AT CAYENNE FRENCH GUIANA WHICH 
INDICATES THAT WAVE IS STILL POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THIS WAVE 
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 2N30W 4N40W 4N48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 
4W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS 
OF 03Z...THE FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 27N90W TO SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 25N97W. A 
VERY NARROW BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN 
THE NE GULF. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM EARLIER EVENING 
CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND MEXICO IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 23N-26N 
W OF 90W. THESE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE GULF AND IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN OVER THE S GULF WATERS ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG 76W FROM NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST TO 
14N. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEING GENERATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE S 
BAY OF CAMPECHE.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO PUERTO 
RICO AND NW VENEZUELA. THIS IS PROVIDING ONLY SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND S WINDWARD 
ISLANDS.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER 
OHIO WITH TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SE U.S. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N77W AND EXTENDS 
SW ACROSS N FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC N OF 30N. 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N50W SW TO THE N 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 30N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. FARTHER EAST...TWO SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTERS DOMINATE THE ATLC E OF 50W. THE STRONGEST BEING 
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N29W AND A WEAKER HIGH CENTERED 
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 36N33W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE 
HIGHS AND LIES FROM 31N27W 29N31W 27N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE.

$$
HUFFMAN