000 AXNT20 KNHC 111030 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N24W 3N35W 4N45W THEN INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-33W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 33W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EXTENDS FROM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF IS CURRENTLY BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE SE US. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF LATER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE GULF AND EXIT ON TUE. THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS INLAND OVER N ALABAMA AND GEORGIA WITH A NARROWER BAND ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA TO E TEXAS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 74W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CREATING A SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH W TO OVER N NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE PRODUCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 55W-75W AND A SHORTWAVE THAT EXTENDS ALONG 61W TO 20N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 31N70W TO INLAND OVER THE E US NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER. CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 60W-77W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 25N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 30W WITH AN NARROW UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N51W TO 26N63W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FORM 32N29W SW TO 23N43W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE ATLC E OF 65W AND IS ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N42W A ND 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 29N26W. THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 50W AND THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 50W COVERED BY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ WALLACE