000
AXNT20 KNHC 091755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 15 KT. WAVE IS 
ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ BUT IS 
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ON THE SSMI PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF WAVE BETWEEN 5N-7N.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N7W 3N14W 2N34W THEN ALONG 2N38W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 3E-4W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 2W-6W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE 1N8W TO ITCZ AXIS NEAR 
4N10W TO 8N13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N 
BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
MEXICAN PLATEAU WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER 
THE GULF AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE SE US. THIS FRONT 
WILL NOT ENTER THE GULF WATERS AND THEREFORE NO SHOWER ACTIVITY 
IS EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF ON 
SUN. A FEW SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF 
BUT ARE NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE SKIES 
REMAIN CLEAR PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 78W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E 
OF 78W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE S BAHAMAS THROUGH JAMAICA TO 
NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS COVERED BY 
A BOARD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC OFF THE COAST 
OF NE BRAZIL. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE S 
AND E CARIBBEAN SEA. FAIRLY STRONG TRADEWINDS COVER MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
A WEAK E PACIFIC SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG WITH CYCLONIC 
SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA COAST IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN BRINGING FAIR 
WEATHER TO THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BOARD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM E FLORIDA TO 
65W. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 52W-63W. 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 40W NORTH OF THE AREA WITH 
SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW 
TO 25N51W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 
29N59W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 61W. 
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ALONG 30W IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH 
AN UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC TO 20N E OF 20W. 
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC EXTENDING SW FROM A 1025 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA.

$$
HUFFMAN