000
AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN N BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO 
THE E OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N25W TO 6N30W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N4W 3N11W 6N21W 5N31W 3N43W 3N52W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-14W AND FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
14W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE GULF WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S/CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE SE US AND 
CENTRAL GEORGIA. MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER 
THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM CURRENTLY JUST E 
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS 
BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA COASTS 
BUT NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. A SMALL AREA 
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OFF THE N COAST OF W CUBA S OF THE 
FLORIDA KEYS FROM 80W-82W. OTHERWISE THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER A PORTION OF THE N 
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE 
A SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA 
TO JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG 
E TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 80W 
AND COSTA RICA. A SMALL AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 30/45 
NM RADIUS OF 18.5N79.5W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER CLEAR 
AGAIN THIS MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 50W AND 
FLORIDA COAST DIPPING S INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING 
SW TO 22N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 
FROM 23N61W TO BEYOND 32N50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS 
DOMINATE BY A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED 
SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N33W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC 
S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT APPEARS TO BE LESS DENSE 
ALONG THE COAST AFRICA. 

$$
WALLACE