000
AXNT20 KNHC 080546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 60W IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND 
HAS BEEN DROPPED. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN N BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO 
THE E OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 7N24W TO 4N29W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 5N23W 2N36W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-24W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC COVERS THE GULF WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO OVER THE SE US TO 
CENTRAL GEORGIA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE 
GULF BUT ONLY IN THE FORM OF FAST MOVING BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS. 
MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF IN 
RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER S/CENTRAL 
PLAIN STATES. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF 
LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BANKING SOME LOW CLOUDS 
ALONG THE TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA COASTS BUT NOT PRODUCING ANY 
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS 
IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF W CUBA S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN 
60 NM OF 81.5W. OTHERWISE THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER A PORTION OF THE N 
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING THE 
AXIS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA TO NICARAGUA. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES MOST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA W 
OF 80W AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS RATHER CLEAR 
AGAIN TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W AND 
FLORIDA COAST DIPPING S INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING 
SW TO 23N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY 
LIGHTENING DATA ARE TO THE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 75/100 NM OF 
LINE FROM 23N61W TO 29N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF E 
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATE BY A 
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST E OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB 
HIGH NEAR 33N36W. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SAHARAN 
AIR LAYER TRACKER FROM CIMSS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AFRICAN 
DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. 

$$
WALLACE