000
AXNT20 KNHC 062350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W-49W FROM 2N-8N MOVING W AT 20 KT.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS N OF 
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W-50W ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE.  CONVECTION 
APPEARS TO DIMINISH AS WAVE APPROACHES DRIER MORE HOSTILE 
ENVIRON TO INTENSIFY.  LARGE BUBBLE OF DRY AFRICAN DUST 
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE KEEPS AREA CLOUD FREE BUT BECOMES A 
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY OF SEVERAL STATIONS ALONG ISLAND CHAIN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N13W 00N27W 00N40W 01N50W INTO NE BRAZIL AT 
1N51W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 01N W 
OF 44W.  CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 00N-04N 
BETWEEN 25W-28W AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
00N-04N BETWEEN 16W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT 30N90W COVERS ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
MODERATE SE FLOW EXCEPT BECOMING STRONG W OF 95W AS RETURN FLOW 
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN 
STATES THU.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
REMAIN ALONG WESTERN TEXAS STRETCHING TO WESTERN FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TONIGHT.  ELSEWHERE...GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES UNDER 
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MAINTAINS DRY AIR MASS DUE TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER WESTERN HONDURAS GIVES WAY 
TO DEEP AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN BRINGING MORE DRY AIR MASS INTO BASIN.  WEAK 50 KT JET 
CORE ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE NE FROM SOUTH CONTINENT IN NARROW 
SWATH WELL WEST OF ADVANCING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 49W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N70W TO NORTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS 
CARRIES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS AIR MASS REMAINS 
VERY DRY THROUGH ENTIRE SW N ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH FURTHER NORTHEAST OF FRONT CARRIES MORE MOISTURE WITH 
SCATTERED TSTMS BUT RACES NORTHEAST N OF 32N ALONG OLD FRONTAL 
TROUGH BOUNDARY NOW DISSIPATED.  

LARGE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1024 MB CENTER CONTROLS WIND 
FLOW OVER CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-62W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED W OF CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLY BARNES