000 AXNT20 KNHC 061735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 1N-8N MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 44W-47W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N20W EQ30W 1N40W 2N46W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 15W-18W. ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE AND MOVE INTO THE NW GULF COAST THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WED EVENING. THE GULF E OF 90W REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL CUBA PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 77W. THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW VENEZUELA TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 77W AND N OF 14N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG N VENEZUELA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N75W JUST N OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 30N75W AND SW THROUGH GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. NO PRECIPITATION REMAINS WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO 24N75W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH. LARGE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 12N-32N BETWEEN 35W-64W. TAIL END OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS TO 29N34W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING WNW AND EXIT THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W AFRICAN COAST TO NEAR 50W BETWEEN 5N AND 20N. $$ HUFFMAN