000
AXNT20 KNHC 061004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W FROM 1N-8N MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 
KT. PRESENT LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AND BASED PRIMARILY ON 
CONTINUITY DUE TO LACK OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC 
OBSERVATIONS. AS OF 08Z...MOISTURE FLUX ON THE MIMIC TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS LIKELY ALONG 
44W/45W. LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W ALONG THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 30W-37W TO 2N44W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. A LARGE 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM 5N-8N E OF 15W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH...50 NM SOUTH...OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 46W AND INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA. 
  
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODERATE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SFC RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS 
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT TRAVERSED THE REGION EARLIER THIS 
WEEK HAS MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA. THE ONLY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS 
IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA E OF 81W. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS IS REACHING THE FAR 
NW GULF...OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY 
CLEAR UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THUR AS LOW 
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE CARIBBEAN 
USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 
13N. A 1010 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING WIDELY ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PANAMA AND COLOMBIA S 
OF 12N. ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 09Z...A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N78W AND 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA 
NEAR 24N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE 
BOUNDARY S OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...OTHERWISE THE FRONT IS 
MOSTLY DRY. SW WINDS 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHIFT W TO NW 
10-15 KT W OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE 
IS GENERATING A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 22N75W 26N72W TO 30N70W AND BEYOND THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
EAST ATLC DUE TO A BROAD SFC RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN. THE RIDGE 
IS ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N50W. 
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 16N27W AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE 
INTERACTION OF THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES MAY BE INFLUENCING 
THE TROPICAL WAVE SIGNATURE ALONG 42W/43W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$
WADDINGTON