000
AXNT20 KNHC 052357
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W FROM 3N-10N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  MINOR 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AS LARGE BUBBLE OF 
AFRICAN DUST FOLLOWS BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING TO COAST 
OF W AFRICA.     

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 07N11W TO 01N30W TO EQUATOR AT 44W... 
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 1S50W.  DECREASING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-20W AND WITHIN 45 NM FROM 
AXIS FROM 20W-25W.  
  
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W INTO 
NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W.  NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT AS AIR MASS REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY UNDER 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS ENTIRE GULF.  MODERATE NE WINDS N 
OF FRONT ARE THE ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM REST OF BASIN THAT IS 
UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWATH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO SE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM E PAC 
RIDING 75-8- KT JET STREAM.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 
30N FROM 85W-95W.  

COLD FRONT MOVES E OF GULF WITHIN NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE CONVECTION 
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ONLY 
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ISOLATED TO E OF 65W AS A 
VERY DRY AIR MASS SITS OVER REGIONS.  ONLY CONVECTION NOTED IS 
DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER ISLANDS AND ALONG 
COAST OF VENEZUELA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE CENTER 
OVER COSTA RICA CONTROLS FLOE OVER WESTERN HALF OF CARIBBEAN 
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PROVIDE CYCLONIC TURNING OVER 
EASTERN HALF.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRESSURE 1011 MB JUST N OF AREA HAS COLD FRONT EXTEND SW 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.  NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FRONT AS AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY.  A 1021 MB HIGH PRES OVER 
WESTERN  ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W PRODUCING FAIR SKIES ACROSS 
BASIN.  SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N39W TO 
23N55W.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH.  HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER 1021 MB OVER E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N35W.  SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM CENTER TO 20N45W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER W ATLANTIC N OF 20N FROM 
40W-80W.  LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER E ATLANTIC NEAR 16N28W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 5N AND E OF 40W.  EXPECT SURFACE TROUGH 
TO DRIFT E DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES