000 AXNT20 KNHC 051058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 7N ALONG 35W WAS MOVED A BIT MORE TO THE WEST IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH SATELLITE DATA/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 33W AND 36W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE WAVE THAN THE REST OF IT BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 3N20W 1N33W...TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W...FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 6N EAST OF 50W...AND SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP LAYER SUPPORT TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS MORE ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W AND 28N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N90W TO 27N96W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N96W TO 28N100W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N100W...ABOUT 20 NM WEST OF NUEVO LAREDO IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 200 TO 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT LEAST TO WEST OF JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N56W TO 13N66W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N50W TO 16N62W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALTERNATELY DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING IN EL SALVADOR IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STARTS IN MEXICO AND ENDS UP IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WEAKENING WITH TIME...IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTH OF 8N BETWEEN 70W AND PANAMA ARE IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 32N30W 20N45W 10N55W. A FEW TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND TROUGH RUNS FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N47W TO 21N56W TO 13N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N51W DROPPING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 29N44W TO 22N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. A TROUGH MORE TO THE EAST PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 30N34W 27N40W 20N50W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N30W 25N40W 18N50W 10N59W. SOME OF THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IS BROKEN UP BY THE SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N67W...AND THE ACCOMPANYING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE 32N41W 22N57W SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE 33N30W 16N62W TROUGH...FROM 17N42W TO 25N29W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N19W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 10N26W 18N24W BEYOND 32N24W RIDGE. $$ MT