000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 7N ALONG 31W/32W MAY HAVE TO BE MOVED TO THE WEST FOR THE 05/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS BASED ON CIMSS MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 35W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W TO 2N25W 3N30W 1N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W...STAYING ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W AND 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...AND FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 15W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST ALONG 93W. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP LAYER SUPPORT TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS MORE ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N88W TO 27N94W AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N99W. THE PART OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH TEXAS MAY BE A BIT OF A WARM FRONT. LET US SEE IF THAT PART CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS MEXICO NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 100W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE RIDGE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 93W...FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 200 TO 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT LEAST TO WEST OF JAMAICA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM JAMAICA EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N61W TO 12N69W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 18N57W TO 16N62W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR... AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT STARTS IN MEXICO AND ENDS IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W...SOME WEAKENING WITH TIME...IN AN AREA OF POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH ALONG 76W/77W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N SUPPORTS THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS THE LENGTH OF FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N50W TO 21N61W TO 12N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 23N50W AND 16N62W. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE 32N43W 16N62W TROUGH...FROM 13N44W TO 21N34W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N27W BEYOND 32N20W. HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N60W 24N42W BEYOND 32N32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 10N26W 18N24W BEYOND 32N24W RIDGE. $$ MT