000 AXNT20 KNHC 042349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE 18Z SFC MAP...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT...MIMIC-TPW...FROM CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS CURRENTLY ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. THE GFS MODELS HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WWD REACHING 36W/37W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W 1N34W EQ47W INTO NE BRAZIL. BESIDES THE ACTIVITY MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 2N14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE DEEP SOUTH. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. 10-15 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COURTESY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W. SWLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ARE ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS N MEXICO...TEXAS AND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE GULF MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE THOSE ISLANDS BUT PARTICULARLY N OF MARTINIQUE. THIS CLOUDINESS IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER SWLY FLOW. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN MOVING WWD ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE ABC ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OFFSHORE VENEZUELA. SWLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN OVER CUBA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN CONTINUE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES SHOWING ELY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 37N43W TO NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 16N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE FORECAST AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N54W THEN CONTINUES SW ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. WV IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN THE TROPICS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N29W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ GR