000
AXNT20 KNHC 041722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 
EQ-2N BETWEEN 2W-5W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 26W-35W... AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 41W-48W.    
  
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
NEAR 31N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W.  A WARM 
FRONT CONTINUES W TO S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONTS. 10-15 KT NELY WINDS ARE N OF THE 
FRONTS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SELY WINDS 
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W.  A BAND 
OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N AND W OF 90W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE WARM 
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING BACK UP THE TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA TO 
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH NO PRECIPITATION.      

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS FROM 17N60W TO GUADELOUPE.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 14N AND E OF 62W.  MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA E OF 70W.  
ONLY MODERATE TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.  MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
25N48W TO 20N53W 17N60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N20W 
TO 25N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N57W.  A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 50W.  IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N29W.  
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.   

$$
FORMOSA