000
AXNT20 KNHC 041105
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE 21W/22W TROPICAL WAVE FROM 05/0000 UTC WAS DROPPED FROM
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 05/0600 UTC BASED ON ITS APPEARANCE
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 18 HOURS EARLIER.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N6W...TO 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 26W
AND 36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 22W...AND SOUTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
NORTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEASTERN 
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
26N94W...CONTINUING TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE 
TEXAS BORDER. ALL THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED BY THIS TIME.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO 20N68W...CONTINUING TO 18N72W 13N73W. THE COLD FRONT FROM
24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH 
21N50W TO 17N60W AND 16N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 
73W...FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS DISSIPATED IN HONDURAS AND MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH 
AMERICA IS BEING SUPPRESSED COMPARATIVELY-SPEAKING BY THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE SAME AREA...EXTENDS FROM A 35N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO 23N64W TO 20N68W...CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO 18N72W AND 13N73W. A COMPARATIVELY NEW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED AND IT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD...NOW NEAR 
33N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 31N36W 27N40W 21N50W TO 17N60W AND 16N65W IN THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W NORTH
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N49W 17N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW IS AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N71W....
NORTHWEST OF THE 31N36W 21N50W SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE 
IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N36W 21N50W TROUGH...FROM 14N50W TO 
20N35W TO 27N26W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N20W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AROUND A 33N23W 
28N23W 21N26W 15N27W RIDGE.

$$
MT