000 AXNT20 KNHC 030012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 16W/17W S OF 9N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N15W TO 8N19W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1N1W 2N9W 5N14W THEN FROM 2N19W 1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC N THROUGH THE NE GULF INTO THE SE US. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIR MASS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH ONLY A FEW LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY IS POSITIONED ACROSS NW LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. MODERATE/STRONG SE SURFACE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 70W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...TO THE VIRGIN/N LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 60W BETWEEN 15N-19N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE MID ATLC STATES IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N70W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 65W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ELONGATED UPPER LOW NEAR 35N54W AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W 24N54W TO THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 60W BETWEEN 15N-19N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N W OF 57W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N25W 27N31W 21N47W TO 16N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-50W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC MAINLY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO W OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ HUFFMAN/WALLACE