000 AXNT20 KNHC 012341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N16W 1N23W 1N46W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF N OVER THE SE US JUST E OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W WITH NO SHOWERS INDICATED. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE E GULF. HOWEVER SMOKE IS INDICATED ON RADAR OVER THE NE GULF FROM FIRES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE REMNANTS FROM A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CUBA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY N OF 17N E OF 84W. TRADEWINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE W ATLC WATERS. MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN. WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS WELL E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N55W ALONG 26N61W TO JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE FRONT NEAR 24N57W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY N OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N27W S ALONG 23N35W TO 18N53W WITH THE REMNANTS CONTINUING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE N CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE WESTERN EDGE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ HUFFMAN/WALLACE