000 AXNT20 KNHC 010549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N9W 2N14W 1N27W 3N40W 2N45W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W... INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 18W...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND OTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N15W 7N30W 7N41W 6N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W IN PROBABLY MOSTLY JUST MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN WEST TEXAS...ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 20N100W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N78W TO 27N91W TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF 70W. THE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SAME HIGH CLOUDS TO BE THINNER AND NOT OBSCURING THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS AS MUCH. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF IN SOME FORM DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N60W 18N67W 19N71W...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO ANTIGUA/BARBUDA...TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... TO HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 17N60W 18N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N73W IN THE BAHAMAS/MAYAGUANA PASSAGE...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NORTHERN BELIZE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. THAT WAS SUPPORTING WHAT USED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY NOW IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N67W AND 26N70W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 30N63W 24N70W TO 23N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N73W IN THE BAHAMAS/MAYAGUANA PASSAGE...ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO NORTHERN BELIZE. AN EAST CENTRAL-TO-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH REMAINS. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REPRESENTATION IS A TROUGH THROUGH 35N35W TO 32N29W 28N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N36W 25N40W 19N50W 17N60W 18N64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 24N60W THAT IS IN BETWEEN THE 30N36W 18N64W TROUGH AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/TROUGH. $$ MT