000
AXNT20 KNHC 302354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 3N25W 1N32W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-34W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N 
BETWEEN 5W-20W AND FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E TEXAS COAST N TO JUST W OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING TOWARD THE SE US. BROAD DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N E OF 86W 
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NO LONGER IN THE GULF 
REGION. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF 
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THAT AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF 
ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE E US N OF THE 
REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE N GULF N 
OF 25N GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER WITH THE SOUTHERLY 
FLOW OVER THE W GULF SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD BANK ALONG THE NE 
MEXICO AND TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
GULF LATE ON SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH 
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA DRAWING UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E 
OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE FAR E 
CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ENTERS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF SANTA CLARA TO 
OVER THE YUCATAN AT N BELIZE TO N GUATEMALA WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA S OF 12N 
FROM OVER COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SMALL AREA OF 
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE...REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY...REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 
15N TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BETWEEN 80W-84W GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS COVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W 
ATLC W OF 72W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE E 
US N OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE GULF 
OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
ENTERING THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST E OF SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF LINE FROM 23N72W TO 26N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 
90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 32N60W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS INDICATED BY LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUE TO BE 
GENERATED OVER E CUBA E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NE INTO 
THE REGION BETWEEN CUBA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N53W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB 
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 26N59W. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF 
THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE REGION 
THROUGH 32N37W S ALONG 24N43W THEN W ALONG 18N56W TO JUST N OF 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH 
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NNE BEYOND 
THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE