000
AXNT20 KNHC 301101
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AT 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S52W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA FROM 6N TO 7N...WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 2N8W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 8W AND 
9W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W...FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN
27W AND 34W...ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA-TO NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT 
IS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHOT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS FILLING IN BEHIND THE MAIN PART OF THE TROUGH.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...CARRYING DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE...MEANING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...MOVES 
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND A SPOT JUST TO THE EAST OF 
BERMUDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST 
OF THE MOISTURE BAND...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 23N98W IN COASTAL MEXICO.
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 20N91W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...CROSSING 
CUBA NEAR 22N78W...TO NORTHERN BELIZE...AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 
17N92W.
 
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 10N60W TO NORTHERN COASTAL 
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...CURVING TO 13N83W...AND NORTHEASTWARD 
TO HISPANIOLA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY 
FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD AS FAR AS JAMAICA AND 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...SOUTH
OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W WEST
OF JAMAICA...AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA.


THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 60W FROM 10N BEYOND 32N. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A 999 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
NEAR 35N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE 35N45W LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER TO 31N43W 26N45W TO 23N61W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N43W ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...TO 26N41W AND 16N44W TO 14N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 8N24W TO 19N23W. A SECOND BRANCH OF A RIDGE RUNS FROM
18N30W TO 32N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ALGERIA. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 23N34W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N64W.

$$
MT