000 AXNT20 KNHC 291051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N7W 4N10W 2N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S46W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 3W AND 4W...WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N4W AND THE EQUATOR AT 6W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 8W AND 10W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 2S16W...FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 38W AND 40W...AND FROM 1S TO 2S BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 31N81W IN FLORIDA TO 24N90W TO 22N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 26N80W AT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...SOUTHWESTWARD SKIRTING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CUBA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING STATIONARY THERE...AND CONTINUING TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO NEAR 17N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N93W 20N91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N75W TO 28N77W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N77W 25N86W 19N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 10N60W TO NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...CURVING TO 13N80W...AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD AS FAR AS JAMAICA...AND THEN STAYING SOUTH OF 17N70W AND 15N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 15N60W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...A RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHOSE BASE REACHES 15N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W MOVING TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 70W FROM 20N BEYOND 32N... IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A.-TO-GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N52W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N43W TO 25N50W TO 23N60W. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N60W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N35W 22N33W BEYOND 32N30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE 31N78W 26N80W COLD FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 6W AND 23W...AROUND A NORTHERN MAURITANIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. $$ MT