000 AXNT20 KNHC 281749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 4W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S-5N BETWEEN 23W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A 1032 MB HIGH DOMINATES THE MEXICAN PLATEAU PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEARING THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST BY LATE EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIAN COAST NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND ALONG 75W TO BEYOND 31N. BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES ACROSS VENEZUELA OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 15N IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ALONG COASTAL COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N71W. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28N67W. THIS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FRONT MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM 30N42W 26N47W TO 22N52W. AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 39N25W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER INTERIOR AFRICA. $$ HUFFMAN/GR