000
AXNT20 KNHC 262316
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 45W...AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S49W. CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE AXIS FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 18W-25W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N. AS 
OF 21Z...A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THE CONVECTIVE REGION FROM 
THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W TO NEAR 27N96W. A DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF 
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS ENHANCING THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE 
GULF LATE SUN. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE FOLLOWING THE 
FRONTAL PASSAGE...REACHING GALE FORCE IN THE WESTERN GULF BY 
MON. A SECOND SFC TROUGH DEPICTING A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT RUNS 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N95W TO 18N94W. LIGHT N WINDS 
ARE W OF THE SFC TROUGH. A SFC HIGH IN THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER W OF 75W. A SFC TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE E 
CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO NEAR 11N65W. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND 
75W...MAINLY N OF 13N. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE 
VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A 
1008 MB SFC LOW OVER COLOMBIA IS SPINNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG THE 
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W-74W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
MOSTLY CLEAR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
STATIONARY 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N74W. FARTHER 
EAST...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. 
AS OF 18Z...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N50W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 25N54W TO 20N60W. A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS 
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 39W-59W. W TO NW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BEHIND 
THE FRONT AND S TO SE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 
A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A SFC HIGH NEAR THE AZORES COVERS 
THE EASTERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 7N51W. 
SWLY FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH IS SUPPORTING THE 
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

$$
WADDINGTON