000 AXNT20 KNHC 241759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF COASTAL TEXAS AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 83W...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N67W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND THE EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL VENEZUELA WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SKIRTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 27N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N67W...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MAYAGUANA BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA/THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N69W AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD IN CONCERT WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 28N67W 25N68W TO 21N71W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 29N59W 27N58W TO 22N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS ALONG 30N37W 27N42W TO 24N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM MILES EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N23W 23N39W TO 16N55W AND IS PROVIDING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. $$ HUFFMAN/MT