000
AXNT20 KNHC 200509
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 4N AND THE AXIS E OF 
12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 
NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-4N W OF 34W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 03Z...THE 
BOUNDARY ENTERS THE EAST GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY AND EXTENDS ALONG 
26N85W TO 25N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ALONG 
24N95W TO 21N96W IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS BOUNDARY 
IS DRY IN NATURE WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS NW OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 
93W. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF IS ALLOWING WINDS 
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...EVEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. 
EXPECT THE COLD SECTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE 
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY WHILE THE STATIONARY 
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. ALOFT...NWLY FLOW ON THE LEADING 
EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS 
MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE 
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS  
ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 14N.
A 1005 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. ALOFT...THE EASTERN EDGE OF A 
FLATTENED TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
PACIFIC ACROSS PANAMA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N. 
OTHERWISE...THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR UNDER 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE W ATLC IS BEING MAINTAINED BY A 1020 MB 
SFC HIGH NEAR 30N74W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS 
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N55W AND EXTENDS ALONG 
25N60W TO 22N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
BOUNDARY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 1026 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 
31N39W COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY 
UPPER FLOW IS TRANSPORTING HIGH CLOUDS FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA 
S OF 15N.

$$
WADDINGTON