000 AXNT20 KNHC 191034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N6W 3N26W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4W-7W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 3N12W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 33W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 19/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF PENSACOLA EXTENDING TO 26N93W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY S OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A SECOND NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER SE ALABAMA AND ACROSS GEORGIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH BROKEN/ OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 24N WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE SW GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND IS NOW OVER THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE GULF IN SPITE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N TO INLAND OVER THE SE US THUS CLEARING SKIES W OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS QUIET AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO CONTINUE TO STALL OVER THE S GULF AND BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK N AND THE PORTION OVER THE US CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE FROM THE TROPICS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN GIVING MOST OF THE AREA UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 77W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF E PANAMA E OF 78W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 68W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N72W. NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 58W-68W WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W ALONG 25N63W TO NEAR 22N69W WHERE IT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK N OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N40W AND THE SURFACE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N43W. AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E ATLC TO 22N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 26N14W TO 25N19W THEN DISSIPATES TO NEAR 25N27W. THE AREA OF THE E ATLC IS RELATIVELY DRY THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS REMAINS TO THE S GENERATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 20N16W 16N30W TO 14N50W. $$ WALLACE