000 AXNT20 KNHC 190527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 1N29W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 1N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 2W-4W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-42W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS SE LOUISIANA EXTENDING ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ THEN CONTINUING INLAND NW OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE SW GULF WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD COVERING THE E GULF AND ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE GULF IN SPITE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS THUS CLEARING SKIES W OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS QUIET TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN TO WASH OUT OVER THE GULF AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE FROM THE TROPICS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN GIVING MOST OF THE AREA UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 83W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A 1006 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF W COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA S OF 10N E OF 78W. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT E COVERING THE SE US INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N76W. NARROWING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM 55W-70W WITH THE UPPER LOW WELL N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N63W TO NEAR 22N69W WHERE IT BEGINS TO PUSH BACK N OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. BROAD DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 26N40W AND THE SURFACE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W. AN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E ATLC TO 23N E OF 30W TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR THE MOROCCO/WESTERN SAHARA BORDER ALONG 25N28W THEN NW TO 28N36W. THE AREA OF THE E ATLC IS RELATIVELY DRY THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICS REMAINS TO THE S GENERATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 22N17W 16N30W TO 14N50W. $$ WALLACE