000
AXNT20 KNHC 170552
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N18W 1N27W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 1S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 17W TO 
INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 26W TO 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE W COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE 
E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND 
CORPUS CHRISTI. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF E OF 
90W INTO THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALL OF THIS IS 
PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE GULF. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE SE US INTO THE GULF WITH 
A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE 
SURFACE RIDGE IS BANKING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF MOSTLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-94W. SOME ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS 
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CUBA E OF 83W. OTHERWISE THE GULF 
REMAINS RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF FRI...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE 
PREVIOUS FRONT BUT WILL BRING SHOWERS THE THE W GULF EARLY ON 
FRI. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE W YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES HISPANIOLA 
EXTENDING ALONG THE S PENINSULA OF HAITI TO ALONG THE S COAST OF 
JAMAICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 N OF THE FRONT. 
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS TONIGHT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TRADE WINDS 
ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE FROM JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. CONVERGENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS AND SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 11N W OF 80W. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A PAIR 
OF UPPER LOWS JUST N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB 
LOW IS ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR 32N69W AND THE 
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA S ALONG 24N66W THEN 
SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 
THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
THE FRONT S OF 24N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE 
LOW SW ALONG 29N73W TO N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO 
81W AND THE COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS FRONT IS BEGINNING TO LOSE 
ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BROAD DEEP 
LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE UPPER 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 29N34W AND THE SURFACE 1030 
MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 32N39W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE ACROSS 
THE TROPICS HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO THE S BY THIS STRONG UPPER 
RIDGE TO THE N AND GENERATING A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM W 
AFRICA NEAR 20N16W ALONG 15N28W TO 20N41W. THUS GIVING THE ATLC 
E OF 60W FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. 

$$
WALLACE