000
AXNT20 KNHC 150520
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N11W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 
3N AND THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 210 NM N AND 140NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-23W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 
29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF THIS 
MORNING. AS OF 03Z...THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE STRAIGHTS OF 
FLORIDA ALONG THE NW TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 
OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT RE-EMERGES IN THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W AND CONTINUES WNW TO NEAR 22N96W. THE 
FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH THE ONLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN 
THE GULF BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
CONTINUE TO INDICATE N TO NW WINDS 15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. 
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY WITH SE RETURN FLOW 
INCREASING OVER THE NW WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS 
EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW AT THE 
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH RESULTS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 09Z...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT JUST CLIPS THE 
FAR NW CARIBBEAN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO 
CONTINUE MOVING SE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NE 
WINDS 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NW AND INCREASE 
TO 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STATIONARY FRONT 
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SE CUBA NEAR 
21N78W ALONG 18N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. LOW CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. 
FARTHER EAST...A SFC TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER 
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE AXIS AND N OF 14N E OF THE 
AXIS. SAT IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE 
MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT 
THIS TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ALOFT...A FLATTENED 
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE 
STABLE.

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE W ATLC IS DEFINED BY THE EXISTENCE 
OF TWO COLD FRONTS. THE STRONGER OF THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N70W AND CONTINUES SW OVER THE BAHAMAS 
NEAR 24N75W BEFORE CROSSING OVER CUBA NEAR 22N77W. MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM BEHIND THE 
BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDS THE BOUNDARY WITHIN 80 NM OF THE NE 
COAST OF CUBA. AS OF 03Z...A SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 
31N73 AND CONTINUES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ENTERING THE STRAIGHTS 
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING 
IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MOSTLY 
CONFINED TO THE AREA N OF 27N...WITH LIGHTING DATA INDICATING 
NUMEROUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE 
LATER TODAY TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
NEAR 30N78W.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC... 
A BROAD DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC. 
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 29N42W. PATCHY 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS....AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 9N34W ENHANCING 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. WLY FLOW N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND S OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS 
FROM S AMERICA TO AFRICA BETWEEN 11N-18N.

$$
CANGIALOSI/WADDINGTON