000 AXNT20 KNHC 142341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO 1S49W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180NM N AND 120NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 31W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COOLER AIRMASS IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS AIRMASS IS BEING REINFORCED BY A SECONDARY DRY FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR FT MYERS TO THE SW GULF ALONG 27N82W 23N87W 22N94W. THESE FRONTS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. BUOY AND SHIP OBS ARE SHOWING N TO NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINING THE COOL AIR. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE SE U.S. TRIGGERED BY THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY CUT OFF. HOWEVER...LITTLE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING INTO THE GULF WATERS AS UPPER CONFLUENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE N OF 25N. LOOKING AHEAD A DAY OR SO...HIGH PRES OVER NE TEXAS WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN ELY OVER THE WRN WATERS...MODIFYING THE AIRMASS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING A LATE SEASON STRONG FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SRN BELIZE ALONG 22N79W 16N89W. LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BEYOND THE CLOUD COVER IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH OBS IN THE NRN YUCATAN REPORTING TEMPS IN THE 70'S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50'S F. THE OTHER INTERESTING LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IS A WWD MOVING TROUGH CENTERED BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE AXIS AND N OF 14N E OF THE AXIS. SAT IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NWD MERGING THE FRONT. ALOFT...A FAIRLY FLAT PATTERN EXISTS WITH A HIGH CENTER OVER SRN NICARAGUA AND TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CARIB...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE. WESTERN ATLANTIC... THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING E LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. AN AREA OF LOW PRES HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N72W AT 21Z. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE CUBAN COAST. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PORTION FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING STRENGTHENING LOW PRES IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC... A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER HIGH PRES SYSTEM DOMINATES THE PATTERN ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SFC CENTER IS ANALYZED 1025 MB NEAR 29N46W. AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE FAR E ATLC THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN STRETCHES FAR WWD TO 22N47W. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR A BENIGN REMNANT FRONT FROM 32N22W TO 28N25W. IN THE DEEP TROPICS....AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR 9N35W ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI/WALTON