000 AXNT20 KNHC 140524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 4N-8N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 5S W OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN TRAVERSING THE GULF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY TO THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY REMAINING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA WHERE DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEAK 1023MB SFC HIGH HAS FORMED NEAR 27N94W. FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS CAUSED COLD AIR STRATUS TO BACK UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. AS OF 03Z...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR...DEPICTED AS A SFC TROUGH...STRETCHED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 29N87W TO 28N93W. A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER DOPPLER RADAR HAS YET TO INDICATE ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW RESIDES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE SFC TROUGH...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS KEEPING THE FAR NORTHERN GULF RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 03Z...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W ALONG 21N85W AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WILL SHIFT N AND INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SURROUND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM SE CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES...STRONGER WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING EXCEPT OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE DIVERGENCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS E OF 67W. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 03Z...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 31N71W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W AND CROSSES OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A BAND OF ASSOCIATED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS RESIDES WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE...CROSSING FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS SE. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASE TO 25 KT LATER TODAY. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 28N47W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TRANSPORTING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 31N27W AND STRETCHES TO 26N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR PORTUGAL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALOFT... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WLY UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE ELONGATED TROUGH AND E ATLC RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 8N TO 16N TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. $$ GR/RJW