000 AXNT20 KNHC 131102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W 3N27W...TOUCHING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W...STAYING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 45W...AND THEN ENTERING NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 6N11W 7N20W 5N30W 5N45W 12N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE THROUGH 31N79W 25N86W 20N93W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W TO 25N91W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N91W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N94W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N103W... AND FINALLY TO 27N105W IN INTERIOR MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS OF DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE...WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N81W 26N87W 24N93W 22N96W...AND FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 14N TO 22N DRIFTING WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 88W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W... A BIG BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF 20N95W 26N87W 30N82W... THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 22N55W 18N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N67W AND 12N75W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF 13N67W 20N64W...FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W FROM JUST WEST OF JAMAICA TO CUBA BETWEEN CUBA ALONG 76W AND IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 86W. ONE UPPER LEVEL SEPARATE RIDGE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEAST OF 12N70W 17N60W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N55W 23N42W 24N30W BEYOND 31N12W. EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EAST OF 50W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 27N36W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N30W TO 27N35W TO 24N45W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH A JET STREAM MARKS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF IT...SOUTH OF 12N70W 17N60W 20N55W 23N42W 24N30W BEYOND 31N12W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N11W TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 25N29W AND 20N40W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 5N TO 14N IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. $$ MT