000 AXNT20 KNHC 121737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W THEN INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-38W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL SW OF A LINE FROM 6N49W TO 5S32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 15Z...THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 28N87W 22N93W TO NEAR 18N90W IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT BECOME STATIONARY AND CONTINUES INLAND OVER MEXICO. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS UP TO 140 NM BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NE WIND 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 25N. PATCHY CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND A SFC RIDGE DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF...BUT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT N AND INCREASE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF REACHING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF...EXITING THE REGION BY SUN AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. PATCHY CLOUDS AND LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY N OF 14N. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST ISLANDS. BRISK EASTERLY TRADES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUN AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR CONDITIONS AND PATCHY CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N60W. A SECOND...BUT WEAKER SFC HIGH IS FARTHER EAST NEAR 28N49W. EXPECT THESE TWO FEATURES TO MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF GEORGIA AND INTO THE W ATLC LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT NW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N40W TO 26N45W WHERE IS BECOMES STATIONARY AND BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 24N50W 22N60W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. THIS BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT WITH ALL ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW ADVECTS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO THE NW COAST OF AFRICA. $$ WADDINGTON