000
AXNT20 KNHC 121105
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N9W TO 4N13W 3N22W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 26W...TO 4S32W THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 5N EAST OF 
10W...SOUTH OF 7N11W 5N23W 12N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEST OF 50W...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LLANO ESTACADO OF TEXAS 
NEAR 33N102W NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. 
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W...CURVING TO 25N100W AND 30N102W.
THE COLD FRONT AT 12/0900 UTC IS SEEN AS A SEPARATE CLOUD LINE 
ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. A BIG BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SNUCK INTO THE AREA UNDER THE BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N38W 24N55W 
20N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
NEAR 17N73W AND 14N77W. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 17N81W WEST OF JAMAICA...AND FROM
19N TO 23N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W NEAR CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W IN CARIBBEAN SEA 
TRADEWIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N36W TO 26N40W 
24N48W 26N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO A 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N56W... AND TO 23N61W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N64W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N79W.

EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE 
RIDGE IS ALONG 22N35W THROUGH 32N24W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 36N17W.

$$
MT