000 AXNT20 KNHC 101019 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N16W 4N30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-52W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME OVERRIDING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL INLAND. THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE NICARAGUA TO W HAITI BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N E OF 67W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS JUST S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC FROM THE FLORIDA E COAST TO 66W WITH A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N50W ALONG 29N54W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N59W ALONG 27N63W TO WEAKENING 1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N72W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N45W 29N59W TO 28N69W. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 45W AND A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N59W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 28N E OF 30W WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION AND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N10W JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N20W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING ALONG 22N29W TO 23N40W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. $$ WALLACE