000 AXNT20 KNHC 100515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N16W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF AND FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH SOME OVERRIDING UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE COAST OF TEXAS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL INLAND. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 89W WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR TONIGHT. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA FROM 77W-83W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND CONTINUES TO USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE FLORIDA EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N51W ALONG 28N53W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N59W ALONG 28N63W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N71W THEN S TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF ALL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 45W AND A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N58W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 28N E OF 30W WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N11W JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N23W THEN DISSIPATING TO 22N36W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE REGION. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW. $$ WALLACE