000 AXNT20 KNHC 091023 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 4N21W 2N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W TO 2S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 7N47W TO 6N52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO AND MOST OF GULF W OF 86W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N81W TO 25N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 86W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING IN THE W GULF W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF BUT A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM NE HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO FORM WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA FROM 82W-84W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 13N E OF 67W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COASTLINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 74W WITH A COMPLEX BUT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N71W TO A SECOND 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N72W CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W THEN AGAIN STATIONARY TO A 1015 MB LOW JUST W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 25N77W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-26N W OF 77W TO THE COAST OF SE FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N72W TO 32N67W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CONNECTED TO AN ADDITIONAL 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N51W WITH A NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N62W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 52W AND A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 25N60W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 12W-40W WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N14W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N19W AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N17W ALONG 27N28W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N42W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 18N32W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS. $$ WALLACE