000 AXNT20 KNHC 081040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N13W 2N17W 1N26W 1N43W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W TO 1S50W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 93W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR E US INTO THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N87W TO AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 24N85W CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N GUATEMALA. A SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 25N84W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 81W-83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 27N E OF 84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM N OF TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 26N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKING ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND OVER THE NE GULF E OF 87W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N ACROSS W CUBA BETWEEN 81W-96W. UPPER WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE TROPICS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF 83W AND NW OF A LINE FROM S NICARAGUA ALONG 16N73W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LEAVING THAT AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/STRONG E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N74W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A PAIR OF 1012 MB LOWS ARE NEAR 30N77W,,,MOVING NE...AND A SECOND NEAR 28N78W... MOVING S...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW LOW ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM CUBA TO 27N W OF 78W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N61W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 20W-50W AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR 34N27W AND A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE REGION WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N27W AND A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO 24N34W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 16N33W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10W. $$ WALLACE